Gugulethu Moyo is a Zimbabwean lawyer at the International Bar Association in London. A critic of the Mugabe regime, she stays in close contact with people and events in her homeland and is co-editor of the book The Day After Mugabe: Prospects for Change in Zimbabwe.
She spoke with CBC(Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) producer Jet Belgraver by phone about the recent crush of events in Zimbabwe surrounding the runoff presidential election scheduled for (today)Friday, June 27, and the possibility of a negotiated agreement between aging President Robert Mugabe and his challenger, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.
CBC: Robert Mugabe said today he is open to talks with the opposition. What should we read into that?
MOYO: There’s been some suggestion he’s under immense pressure from [South African President] Thabo Mbeki’s representatives, who are in Zimbabwe and trying to encourage the two sides to negotiate. So the efforts to negotiate haven’t ended.
The suggestion’s been that Mugabe’s been warned that if he doesn’t go to the negotiating table, he would face sanctions and harder times ahead. I’m told that the UN representative in the country gave him a similar warning about his prospects if he hardens his position.
Tsvangirai came out yesterday and disassociated himself with the statement that had been published [in The Guardian newspaper], calling for military intervention. He said he was willing to negotiate with the support of the AU.
So people suggest that those two statements are not a coincidence and that both sides are under pressure to negotiate ... Negotiations is what will move the situation forward.
CBC: Is any of this, the pressure, the statements, going to have any effect on Friday’s election, assuming it goes ahead?
Moyo: The pressure will have some effect. What people cannot answer is what effect ... and what kind of pressures are being brought to bear at the moment.
If those who are putting Mugabe under pressure are threatening sanctions and further economic decline, I think that some within the ZANU-PF might be persuaded to try and negotiate. It really depends on how credible first of all the pressure that’s being applied is, and how credible any threats may be.
Mugabe in his speech yesterday was defiant and was very critical of other African leaders and that doesn’t endear them to him
When you talk to people inside Zimbabwe, they say the economic situation is unsustainable. They expect something to happen within the next two months. But no one can say what they expect to happen.
They believe that by next Monday, there will be so much pressure on Mugabe because the impact, the economic impact of what they’ve done in the past couple of weeks will start to manifest itself.
That is because they’ve been paying people and spending lots of money on his campaign and they believe Mugabe nor ZANU-PF has a plan for after the election; that they’ve put everything into this election, and by next week there might be a real dramatic decline in the economic situation and they’ll have no answers for it.
CBC: What are the best options for Zimbabwe right now?
Moyo: A negotiated settlement is the most likely. It is highly unlikely there will be any stronger intervention from Africa, the AU or the UN. One doesn’t want people to suffer any more from the consequences of sanctions.
What I hope for is that the two sides will get together and negotiate some kind of constitutional settlement, which moves Zimbabwe from where it is now to some kind of democratic dispensation - a dispensation that is seen as legitimate, more or less the kind of transition that South Africa had.
CBC: What are the options for Mugabe?
Moyo: The MDC [Tsvangirai’s party] have said they will not seek to prosecute him. They would respect his role as the founding father of Zimbabwe, and will not seek to punish him for any of the crimes that have been committed under his watch or hold him to account for misgovernance.
If they are to [let him leave] his future may not be as bleak as he’d imagined. If only he would go. I don’t’ think he’ll trust those reassurances and he has many reasons not to do that. First of all, the international legal crime is such that once he leaves power, he should expect to be held accountable, not only in Zimbabwe but in other courts.
Mengistu Haile Mariam [a former Ethiopian dictator] is in exile in Zimbabwe and he surely must be a reminder to Mugabe that once you leave power, you may well be prosecuted in your own country and find you can’t go anywhere.
Another example is [former Zambian President] Frederick Cheluba, who was prosecuted by someone he thought he could trust, somebody he controlled. But it turned out that the president who succeeded him became very independent and went after him and prosecuted him for corruption.
Mugabe understands these things, not just for him but for those people around him who may be more directly linked with crimes in Zimbabwe.
CBC: What is the best-case scenario?
Moyo: First of all, that the electoral commission in the country refuses to recognize the election. That would be a very positive step because if Mugabe wins, in what the SADC observers call a credible election, Zimbabwe will be worse off because he’ll believe he is in power legitimately.
After that, the two sides are encouraged to resume negotiations with a mediator that both sides have confidence in ... and that they start negotiating.
CBC: And the worst-case scenario?
Moyo: That the violence will increase, because there will be many frustrated MDC supporters who believe that the way to deal with ZANU-PF’s violence is to respond in kind.
People who’ve been beaten and intimidated in the run-up to the election may feel if Mugabe wins and is sworn as president, may feel they have to resort to violence.
Credit: cbc.ca
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