Commentary
By Scott A Morgan
Even though most security specialists in the Gulf of Guinea region have their focus on the Niger Delta, there is ample evidence that they should focus some of their attention on Guinea-Bissau.
Currently an attempt to build reforms and stronger democratic ideals in Guinea-Bissau under the Stability Pact has several problems notably resistance from the military establishment and a glaring weakness in the structure of the government. There has not been any attempt since 1974 to enact any reforms.
The stakes not only for the country but the region as a whole are high. The structure that is currently in place invites the military to seemingly take over the government on a whim. In a region where tensions in Guinea-Conakry are simmering at best and Liberia and Sierra Leone had civil conflicts that led first to regional intervention followed by UN Peacekeeping operations, this can be construed as a recipe for disaster.
Right now, Guinea-Bissau is at the crossroads of some of the regional tensions. The country is being used as a point for the trans-shipping of narcotics from South America to Europe. It also has created a refugee crisis by driving the Casamance rebels from their bases in the country into Gambia. There are current fears that the current government could return Gambian dissidents home by force in the near future as well.
Also, the release of a report by the United Nations in 2006 describing the prominent role of government officials in the drugs trade implemented a crackdown on the media as well. One journalist went into hiding after the navy Chief of Staff filed defamation charges against him. Currently there have been no reports of intimidation of journalists within the country.
This year saw the Inaguration of the APS (Africa Partnership Station) by the United States. The Gulf of Guinea has been deemed to be of vital security interest to the United States. So with the formation of AFRICOM (AFRIca COMmand) this means that the US could have an increased role in any future crisis in the region. This is a concern of those who fear that the US is militarizing the continent of Africa.
Nation building in Guinea Bissau is imperative for regional security. Whether or not the US plays a role in any future endeavor is yet to be seen. Whether or not there will be conflict on a low intensity or regional scale is not clear either. But it is apparant that the future stability of West Africa may hinge its success upon a stable Guinea-Bissau.
Photo: President Joao Bernardo "Nino" Vieira of Guinea Bissau.
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